If you want to get a bond forecast and understand where the bonds will move, then you can use our Bond Forecast service at FINPROPHET.COM (https://finprophet.com). To do this, you need to log in and follow the link in the left menu by clicking the appropriate button:
Also you can follow the link: https://finprophet.com/en/pages/instruments/bonds
The bond forecast page looks like this:
The list of bonds is shown on the left:
Above the list of bonds, you can use the bond search and find the bond you are interested in:
Bond quotes are shown on the right, and the forecast is shown in orange:
More precisely, the moving average of the bond’s moving average quotes is shown in orange. The bond’s moving average itself is shown with a green line. By default, an EMA with a period of 49 is added as a moving average on the chart.
As you can see in the chart, the bond quotes fluctuate around the moving average in both directions. Thus, you should understand that the quotes of the forecast bond will also fluctuate relative to the forecast shown on the chart in orange.
Bond forecast term: up to 8 months. As a rule, the forecast period is up to 6 months.
If you want to assess the state of a bond technically based on various indicators, then you can do this by clicking on the button in the upper left corner of the chart as shown in the picture below.
At the same time, the Finprophet.com system has a fairly large number of indicators.
The forecasting technology is based on MLP and LSTM neural networks. We have neural networks that allow us to make both a technical forecast, taking into account financial market data, and a technical and fundamental forecast, taking into account both financial market data and fundamental indicators, market conditions and many other parameters, of which there are 14 pieces in total.
As for the forecast accuracy, it must be said that neural networks give an effective forecast at the level of 50 to 80%. What do I mean by effective forecasting ?? In this case, I mean that the neural network correctly determines the motion vector of the quote over the entire period of time.
It should be understood that there are unforeseen circumstances that you must consider if you use the service. These factors include a huge number of factors. And it’s not just Covid-19. This is a change in the refinancing rate, and a change in the financial condition of the problem. Or, on the contrary, an increase in investor interest, as was the case with GameStop.
As an example of understanding the situation with the forecast, the following graphs can be cited.
For example, this graph shows that the forecast is correct over the entire period of time. But this is not always possible. For example, corrections are possible, such as shown in the figure below.
As you can see, towards the end of the forecast, the financial instrument corrected, but at the same time returned to the level of the neural network forecast. But situations of a radical change in the trend are possible, as shown below.
What conclusions can be drawn from this?
1. It is important to constantly monitor the forecast and condition of the bonds in which you have invested. Our neural networks work constantly, and periodically update the forecast of a financial instrument.
2. To fix the profit in time, when the goal you are interested in is achieved.
3. A bond forecast is a kind of filter or system for selecting financial instruments that allows you to select the most profitable instruments for investment. And when you achieve goals or find a new tool, you can shift to another.
4. The potential yield of bonds should be assessed. To do this, we have services for the selection of trading and investment strategies and signals.
5. Protect your investment. Diversify and hedge risks. Don’t focus on just one financial instrument. Invest in 5 or another amount of your choice. Even if some investment fails in the event of a mistake, you will be protected by the rest of the instruments.
If you want to increase your profitability, maximize profits, find the most profitable bonds for investments, increase the profitability and profitability of your investment portfolio, then all this is not difficult to do. But at the same time it is important to use all the tools together. It is important to consider what is said above. Use not just a forecast, but a number of services.
We make our services so that they can be used by anyone, even the most novice investor who understands absolutely nothing about the stock and financial markets. You can simply use the forecast charts to make decisions. You can use the services for selecting strategies and signals, where potential profits, entry and exit points have already been calculated. You can analyze bonds technically based on indicators or fundamentally if qualifications and experience allow you.
We wish you success
and victories in financial
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